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export a triumph?

Then

the results obtained by President Chavez in the referendum on Sunday 15 February, it is worth asking about the influence of Venezuelan model in Latin America. not only from a political standpoint, but also from an economic standpoint, since much of the success of the Chávez movement has been influenced by very high resource management that has permitted to deploy in the foundations of Venezuelan society.

In fact, the market have already been reacted sharply on this wasteful expenditure of resources that can be seen in indicators such as country risk, which measures the amount of extra yield an investor would need to move your money from the U.S. economy to one of greater risk, and that in the case of Venezuela has increased by 244% in the last year, as shown in the adjacent table.

Source: CESL

Similarly the fall in oil prices and market expectations remain to the downside, have made estimates of economic growth have diminished considerably, as shown next the graph, which is observed as the Gross Domestic Product (which includes all goods and services produced in the economy ), has fallen far strongly (about 63% since 2006), when compared with other economies such as Brazil and Chile that have experienced falls of 16 and 12 percent respectively in the same period.

Source: CESL

is why it is very difficult to claim that the capacity to mobilize resources to other economies to strengthen political models feasible, at least for now. This does not mean that Venezuelan political model is not exportable and applicable to other economies, but their influence may perhaps be less. But take for example the case of Bolivia, where President Evo Morales said to be considering raising the model of indefinite re-election after the triumph of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela.

is worth remembering that President Morales had urged a constitutional amendment that could win comfortably despite the strong opposition that remains in his country and the comparable difference in economic resources.

A Despite all the above stated, Venezuela still has an advantage compared to its Latin American neighbors, as cash flow remains high for the export of oil today is a critical raw material for her world economy. is why that despite the falling prices of that, the country still has a positive trade balance as exports still exceed imports, which is reflected in its current account, such as noted in the chart below.

Source: CESL

is why the Venezuelan economy can "afford" to adopt the model Chavez This not necessarily mean that this is positive from the political and social point, but if it is able to maintain high levels of satisfaction in the lower strata of society, despite the country's structural problems.

Is that exportable model? ... 100%.

In any economy that has a basis of poverty over 30% of the population and where the poverty is not met in a timely way, the Chavez model is applicable. A proof of this are the economies of Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Argentina.

Perhaps this is not the best time of the Venezuelan economy and political might not be so strengthened as in 2003, but applying the principles of international trade, if you can not grow in the market inetrno, it might be time to grow in others.

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